In this post I argue that unethical scientific behaviors like faking data are symptoms of triggered survival response. Scientists are exposed to repeated stimuli conditioning them to fear that without sexy results and ever increasing status, they will be rejected if not ejected from science.
Scientific research is unreliable. It comes with uncertainty. Whether launching a rocket or measuring racial prejudice, there is uncertainty. We use this uncertainty to make decisions. If the rocket has a 40% chance of exploding, best not to stick astronauts in it. If skin-tone bias of soccer referees is somewhere from none to a lot, it is irresponsible to conclude they are prejudiced.
Investigating uncertainty, is science. Truth and uncertainty are two sides of the same coin, they co-define each other. A problem for humans measuring uncertainty, is that humans are unreliable. Human scientists themselves add uncertainty to the measurement of uncertainty.
Recent studies suggest that somewhere between 25 and 60% of published statistical results cannot be recreated using the materials provided – these measures of uncertainty come with their own uncertainty. It turns out that scientific researchers are doing some really peculiar things to generate uncertainty. Some surveys suggest as many as 9% of scientists faked data at least once in their careers, and that more than half selectively reported findings – a behavior that makes the things they study to appear less uncertain than they actually are.
Why would scientists fake research?
I believe the answer lies in their humanness. Like all animals, they are genetically programmed for survival. They are capable of both rational, reflective decision-making and split second reaction without any thought. Given time to reflect, a human would generally conclude murder is unethical, but simultaneously would not hesitate to kill if it prevented their child from being killed. Murder remains wrong, but to not kill and let a child die is also wrong. It would be irresponsible parenting failing to ensure survival.
Murder is a profound act when a human perceives themselves to be in a situation of life or death. It is a symptom of subconsciously activated defense mechanisms in survival mode. But there are many other symptoms. In order to avoid death, humans, like other primates can engage in deception, disassociation, aggression, manipulation, submission, scapegoating, theft and hoarding. If someone held me at gun point and told me to prove the earth was flat, I would have no problem doing it. The math would work, I would just need to fake a little data
Why would scientist act as if their lives were threatened?
Most scientists have highly valued knowledge and competencies and thus live in situations where their lives are not under threat. At least not as a result of their scientific practice. For the sake of this thought experiment, lets just rule out regularly occurring life-threatening danger as a cause of scientists exhibiting survival mode behaviors. This leaves the perception that they are under threat, as a possible explanation.
It takes only a few stimuli to induce survival mode behavioral changes in animals. Like hearing a frightful noise when seeing an animal. This animal and anything that looks like it become automatic sources of anxiety and fear even without the sound. Imagine being told over and over and over that you have to have an exciting study with powerful results in order to get an academic job after graduate school, otherwise you wasted 3-8 years of your life and probably a large chunk of capital on getting a PhD. Could this alone, without introducing any actual shocks or physical pain, induce Pavlovian fear? I encourage you to go ask any graduate student to answer this that does not yet have such a study.
Now imagine that during graduate school a student invests all their time and resources into an experiment. After it is complete, they hypothesized result, the one sure to be exciting and publishable, is not there. Imagine the horror, the shame, the feeling of failure, the panic. Remember the poor soul who leaped to his death because he misunderstood futures trading and thought he owed three-quarters of a million dollars? That was a triggered survival response. Because dying felt like the only way to ‘survive’ the horror of facing that debt. Imagine if he could have just changed the futures market by adding his own numbers to the market. Would he have done it?
We should not be surprised at all then, when scientists acting out of fear-based survival strategies, fake data. Diederik Stapel faked an entire career of data before being caught. His behavior was self-described as an “addiction”. A common reaction of individuals placed under fear stimuli that are emotionally damaging if not traumatic. The intense pressures and expectations of the academic environment created a context in which he felt compelled to engage in unethical practices to maintain his status and success. It does not make murder or data-faking right, but to not take this as grounds for indicting the scientific rewards system is certainly wrong.
The incentive structures have to change before we can honestly expect the fear-driven pressure to fake, cheat, lie or steal – in order to avoid the experience of loss associated with the common null results that occur when conducting high quality scientific research on radically complex human brains and societies that are frustratingly difficult to measure things in – to go away.
A case of a fake journal that passed Google Scholars’ bots and algorithm checking to become indexed. The journal contained articles that were completely plagiarized but assigned new titles, abstracts and authors.
See updates at end of blog for table of plagiarized papers, and a small win for open science after the domain host revoked the content of the plagiarized paper’s URLs.
A colleague of mine was searching Google Scholar using certain words and the number two hit appeared with the following title and direct download link.
The PDF looks like a journal article. The journal has an ISBN instead of DOIs, but this is not unheard of. It even has an impact factor listed: 7.11, it must be good.
It turns out that this seemingly interesting paper with an alleged author who is an expert in this area, is plagiarized.
How do I know it is plagiarized? Just ask the real authors of the paper which appeared with a different title and abstract in Social Science Research one year earlier. Oh and with an identical word-for-word text, with some mistakes relating to equations – possibly a failed scraping algorithm.
The journal title is Journal of Current Research and Review, but it is extremely difficult to find through an internet search. This requires endless scrolling (as of 10.08.2023), or removing the ending on the download URL to arrive at the index page.
Scrolling down on the home page reveals the “Latest Articles”. Here I find the same title that appeared in Google Scholar. However there is no download link, only the title and abstract. In other words, the URL that Google Scholar found to download the paper is not accessible through any link on the journal’s website.
How is it possible that Google Scholar would pick up and index such garbage?
I asked ChatGPT to tell me how Google Scholar works, and the results suggest that someone or something had advanced knowledge and programming skills that would provide the right meta-data and materials on the journal webpage to pass the automated Google Scholar bots which are constantly scraping the web for academic papers and publications.
From ChatGPT prompted with “How does a journal get indexed in Google Scholar?” (09.08.2023). I received the following answer. Note that I removed the descriptions of each point, as they are mostly self-evident.
Google Scholar indexes scholarly literature, including journal articles, conference papers, theses, and other academic resources. In order for a journal to get indexed in Google Scholar, there are several steps and criteria to consider:
Quality Content
Digital Format
Open Access and Accessibility
Consistent Publishing Schedule
Meta Tags and Structured Data
Proper Article Metadata
Citations and References
Author Profiles
It’s important to note that Google Scholar’s indexing process is automated, and there is no formal application process for journals to get indexed. Google Scholar’s algorithms discover and index content based on various factors. However, journals can follow best practices to increase their chances of being indexed and improving their visibility within Google Scholar’s search results.
The journal website and meta-data had to pass Google Scholar’s algorithm. This is no lucky feat. Although Google does not reveal any usage of AI to evaluate journals for indexing, it clearly has an advanced system of scraping, filtering and crawling. Who or whatever designed this journal, or really this website that looks like a journal, understood how to pass the test. For example, the “Latest Articles” appear to be from “Volume 14” suggesting to potential crawling bots that the journal may have been published for 14 years now.
This is of course false. There are no other articles readily accessible from the journal’s website other than the two that appear. The other article is also plagiarized, in case you were wondering. But, a closer look at the URL reveals that the article I am discussing has the number “800” at the end of its URL.
Changing this number yields other papers. At least as far back as number 795; prior to that yields 404 errors. Moreover, I cannot find the papers from 795-798, only their titles and abstracts.
The journal website’s main page yields something even stranger. It looks like what a computer science student might create as an example page to try and sell as a template or to demonstrate the services on offer for a website construction gig. The content has absolutely nothing to do with journals, academia or publishing.
It even comes with fake testimonials. I wonder whose pictures were stolen for this…
The real question for me is, ‘what to do about this?’. Clearly this is fraud and constitutes both ethical and legal infringements on science. Looking up the host of the domain of the journal using ICANN reveals that it is provided by a Lithuanian company Hostinger.
Looking at this company’s website suggests they are legitimate. The provide contact information to report abuse. So that is what I did by sending them the info in this blog post.
Hostinger replied within two days and told me they take abuse of their services very seriously and asked me for more evidence so they could pursue the case. I gave them the two links for the plagiarized papers and their original versions published one year earlier in Social Science Research.
For all the negative publicity surrounding Elsevier, they are still a player in the academic world. In 2020 they owned roughly 16% of the academic publishing market. If there is anyone who would want to prevent abuse of their services, including plagiarism of their work, it is Elsevier. They have a trove of lawyers fighting and winning battles to protect their content across the world. As the two plagiarized papers that I can download are from the Elsevier journal Social Science Research, it made sense to contact them as well. Elsevier’s due process suggests contacting the journal editor first. Thus, I have sent this information to the lead editor.
Google certainly would not want its products indexing fake journals with plagiarized papers, so I took the liberty of contacting them as well.
What is striking about the journal is that they have a long editorial board list. Internet searching reveals that these are real scholars. I also contacted them. I will continue to report on this case as it unfolds.
The question for me is: ‘what motivated someone to create this site?’. There is clearly no profit associated with it. There is also no status gain, because the plagiarized papers have authors assigned to them who are not the original authors and clearly not players supporting the fake journal. They are highly established scholars in their respective sub-fields. These fakely assigned authors are perfect examples of what an AI might choose to assign to a certain topic. I tested this by asking Chat GPT if Seamus McGuinness could have written the abstract. The response points at AI as a source for potentially re-writing abstracts of the plagiarized papers and for finding suitable authors to assign to them. ChatGPT said:
Yes, Seamus McGuinness could be a potential author who might have written this abstract. Seamus McGuinness is known for his research on labor market issues, including education-job mismatches, gender disparities, and remote work. His expertise aligns with the themes discussed in the abstract, making him a plausible candidate as one of the authors who could have written it.
It remains a mystery for now what is up with this website and the fake journal. Was it a computer science project that accidentally got picked up by Scholar, one that was never intended for public consumption? Was it an attempt to create a journal, but try and hide the real content of the journal until it could pick up real submissions? Was it entirely AI generated, to showcase the power of an AI?
[Update 14/08/2023]
Thanks to Random Cat on Twitter, I learned that there are more papers than just two. Using Google Scholar they searched by journal.
[a] Published twice in JCRR with different authors
[b] Not indexed in Google Scholar
All are from Social Science Research except one. There are also other papers where I cannot find an original. These papers might actually be original papers, or stolen working papers that are not easy to find online.
Interestingly, some papers that appear that they may not have been plagiarized have a different display in PDF form. This includes contact details for the journal. I thus emailed them as well to inform them that they are committing ethical and legal fraud.
[Update 23.08.2023]
Hostinger investigated the reported problem and determined that the user of their domain had violated the terms of ethical/legal usage and removed the plagiarized papers. However, the journal website still appears. In other words, a journal that obviously intentionally plagiarized several articles, possibly to boost its reputation and encourage others to submit and thus pay the 45 dollar fee, is still out there lurking. Moreover, this journal is part of a larger company called Zenodo Publishing. On their main page the list dozens of journals. If I had to guess I would assume these journals are also predatory, and may contain plagiarized content. Only investigating this will prove if this is true.