Open Science? What’s That?

Was the answer I got from Andrew Abbott at a Hogwart’s dinner I was fortunate enough to attend a few years back when I asked him after dinner, “what are your thoughts on open science?”

That’s right. Open science. Say something paradigm changing.

We have so many results and coherent arguments about the status of science. To make an impact here requires synthesizing them into something new. Not purely constructively new in nature, but also subtly undermining all that came before. Something was missing all along and this new perspective is it. That’s the problem.

Our formula for declaring theory and opinion in scientific writing is that it must be big. Paradigm impacting. Makes you think. Expresses the scientist author’s authoritative intellect and ingenious perspective. With seemingly effortless written words, the scientist author lays down an argument so convincing, that it must be true. It was true all along. It is so obvious, why didn’t I see it? Thinks the average reader.

If Diederik Stapel was never caught, he would be a model for success. THE model for success in social psych. You don’t know what the formula for success is? Ask an economist. You have 3, maybe 5 journals in which you need to get published very early on. You have to have a job market paper that is known. You have to have connections. Otherwise you are on the sidelines, building an exit strategy. This is roughly true in the other social and behavioral science disciplines, yet we in sociology or political science will mostly deny it. We are better than those status maniacs.

But it is publish-or-perish. And this is the model.

To do publish, requires word wizardy. The ability to take any findings and craft an argument about them that makes them seem relevant is more valuable than research method skills. To make any findings seem essential to our fundamental understandings of somethings that are important. That is how we do science. Framing.

Andrew Abbott has the goal of out thinking, reading, writing and arguing everyone he encounters. Ask him if you ever meet him. He will not deny this. Easily considered by most to be one of the greatest living sociologists. He was editor of AJS and published book reviews of random, late-night selections in the Oxford library under a pen name, because it was fun. Because that is what legends do, and then tell about. He once wrote that sharing all material to be reproducible and replicable would make science boring.

As long as this is the model for success, we are not making real progress.

I sat at a dinner once with Ronald Inglehart. Every student, postdoc and professor there gawked with wide eyes. What was so appealing and enthralling. Why was this scientist a rock star for us? Was it his findings? Or was it his status? I think status. I think that is what scientists are seeking. I observe it. I feel it. If you have to have certain publications in order to not just pursue a scientific career, but to be at the ‘forefront’ of a subfield, then does it really matter what is in those publications? As long as you get to claim that status, that is it. You win. Why do athletes take steroids, cheat? Is it because of their great passion for the sport? Or is it to win status?

I entered a Master’s program in order to learn about the problems associated with a topic that was pressing for social justice and democracy. I still want to do this. But status was dangled in front of my eyes. ‘Publications are the currency of our trade’. The professor who told me this was absolutely correct. Now I want to do open science, but I have to perform wizardy with words to be recognized as central to the open science movement. This makes me uneasy to the point of nausea.

How can science become trustworthy and effective, if we have to be witty, cutthroat and/or famous in order to take part in it? How can we overcome this delusion? When will we stop and say enough is enough?

This type of honesty is what John Levi Martin specifically advised not to put out on the intrawebs because it will come back to bite me someday. Image (presentation) is everything. Warhol or Abbott, they figured that out long ago. I guess then for my own peace of mind, I extend my hand. Bite away you biters.

Overcoming replication fears

Fear of rejection, part I

To replicate a study, you need information. Probably information that is not fully disclosed in a 6-12,000 word journal article. Except for a recent trend, information such as data and analytical procedure are not going to be available publicly. This means you should, or must in case the data are not retrievable from some other source, contact the original author. Be prepared for rejection. One study demonstrated that among the top sociology journals, less than 30% of replication materials were available (even though as many as 75% claimed otherwise). Political science was only marginally better at around 50% as of 2015. Professors are likely to ignore emails asking for their data and code. One group of sociology students contacted 53 different authors asking for replication materials and only 15 provided them (28%). Ten never responded to the requests at all, despite several follow up emails. So don’t take it personally, social scientists are not known for their forthcomingness in this area.

Verification is not affirmation

Imagine being a student who tries to verify the results of a prolific, senior scholar and cannot. If it were me, I would be anxious that I made a mistake. But the only real mistake would be to assume my lack of verification is a refutation of my own skills. Of course, it’s good to double check everything. Have a colleague look at your work if you are unsure, a teacher or supervisor if you are a student. Un-verifiable results are common, no need for self-doubt. Things like reverse coding biological sex so that women appear less supportive of welfare state policies or accidentally analyzing values of 88 (a missing code) as a relevant value of coital frequency leading to a surprising rate for older persons are actually a normal part of social science.

When replicating a study just assume there will be at least one mistake. Like a treasure hunt.

Verification comes down to the availability of the materials. If the data and code are not fully available, it really is a treasure hunt because you will be unsure what you are going to find or learn. On the other hand, if the data and code are available and in good order, then it is more like cooking than hunting. This often comes down to the difference between teaching replication – the recipe approach, where students should come to the same results every time when following the exact same steps, and replication as a form of social research – the treasure hunt approach, where researchers (i.e., students) may not have a coherent recipe from the original ‘chef’. But make no mistake(!) even fully transparent studies often come with mistakes in the code or data.

Fear of mistakes

If I am not making mistakes, I am not doing research. You will make mistakes and there is nothing to fear. There are all kinds of reasons that replication results will diverge, not all of them are mistakes. Recently a well-known and well-respected sociologist retracted his own paper after someone trying to replicate the study identified coding errors. One journal started checking that data and code produced results in accepted papers, and almost none were verifiable on the first attempt. In a crowdsourced replication, mostly PhD students, postdocs and a few professors came to an exact verification of the original study only 82% of the time, despite having the original code!

Fear of the unknown

Designing statistical models using a software is like learning a new language. Student replications often involve methods unfamiliar to the them. This is a great didactic tool – learning by doing. There is nothing to fear here. Professors’ original studies often involve methods that they are not experts in. One extremely famous scholar and his colleague ran a regression with an interaction term in it and botched the interpretation of the effects, the results were basically the opposite of what they reported.

Science is a process of exploring the unknown. Replications use what is known as a tool for finding what is unknown.

Fear of rejection, Part II

Students may be interested in publishing their replications, they should be, because how else will others put their knowledge into practical use? Get prepared again for rejection. Journals and reviewers across the social sciences are not very excited about replications. A pair of researchers studied the instructions and aims of 1,151 psychology journals in 2016 and discovered that only 3% explicitly accepted replications. One sociologist pointed out not so long ago that replication is just not the norm in sociology, and another one recently came to the same conclusion. The good news is that we don’t need journals anymore to make useful science, at least in theory. Students can immediately publish their results as preprints and share data and code in a public repository. If a student elects to use Open Science Framework preprint servers, their work will be immediately found in scholarly search engines.

Fear of ego

Scientists tend to overestimate the impact of a negative replication on their reputations. Ego-alert. Assume a scientist worried about a replication is a professor. This is a person who is most like tenured, certainly the highly cited professors are. This is also a person who “professes” knowledge on a topic, meaning that they should be an expert and engage in teaching students, policymakers, the public and really anyone interested about this topic. If any of this professor’s results were shown to be unreliable or false, this would be a critical piece of information if that professor’s goal was to actually profess knowledge on that topic. Unfortunately, professors regularly suffer from some kind of ‘rock-star syndrome’ or ego-mania where they are doing science as a means to get recognition and fame. This leads them to react aggressively against anything that contradicts them. This is very bad for science. If a student replicator can help deplete a runaway professor ego through replication, then that student is doing a great service to science.

Fear of not addressing fear

In a typical primary or secondary school chemistry class, students repeat the basic experiments of chemical reactions that have been done for hundreds of years. These students are learning through replication. They are gaining knowledge in a way that cannot be simply taught in a lecture or by reading a book. They are also affirming the act of science, thus developing a faith that science works. In social science especially, we face a reliability crisis if not a public image crisis. Students should be reassured that there is a repetitive and reliable nature to doing social science, whether they will continue as a social scientist or (in the most likely case) not. Part of this reliability can be a lack of reliability. Science is simply a process of trying to understand the unknown, and even quantify this unknown. I fear that without more student replications, we are diminishing the value of social science and contributing to the perception that social science is unreliable.

Good social science should be reliably able to identify unreliability, and this is best taught through conducting replications.

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