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Science in survival mode

Scientific research is unreliable. It comes with uncertainty. Whether launching a rocket or measuring racial prejudice, there is uncertainty. We use this uncertainty to make decisions. If the rocket has a 40% chance of exploding, best not to stick astronauts in it. If skin-tone bias of soccer referees is somewhere from none to a lot, it is irresponsible to conclude they are prejudiced.

Investigating uncertainty, is science. Truth and uncertainty are two sides of the same coin, they co-define each other. A problem for humans measuring uncertainty, is that humans are unreliable. Human scientists themselves add uncertainty to the measurement of uncertainty.

Recent studies suggest that somewhere between 25 and 60% of published statistical results cannot be recreated using the materials provided – these measures of uncertainty come with their own uncertainty. It turns out that scientific researchers are doing some really peculiar things to generate uncertainty. Some surveys suggest as many as 9% of scientists faked data at least once in their careers, and that more than half selectively reported findings – a behavior that makes the things they study to appear less uncertain than they actually are.

I believe the answer lies in their humanness. Like all animals, they are genetically programmed for survival. They are capable of both rational, reflective decision-making and split second reaction without any thought. Given time to reflect, a human would generally conclude murder is unethical, but simultaneously would not hesitate to kill if it prevented their child from being killed. Murder remains wrong, but to not kill and let a child die is also wrong. It would be irresponsible parenting failing to ensure survival.

Murder is a profound act when a human perceives themselves to be in a situation of life or death. It is a symptom of subconsciously activated defense mechanisms in survival mode. But there are many other symptoms. In order to avoid death, humans, like other primates can engage in deception, disassociation, aggression, manipulation, submission, scapegoating, theft and hoarding. If someone held me at gun point and told me to prove the earth was flat, I would have no problem doing it. The math would work, I would just need to fake a little data

Most scientists have highly valued knowledge and competencies and thus live in situations where their lives are not under threat. At least not as a result of their scientific practice. For the sake of this thought experiment, lets just rule out regularly occurring life-threatening danger as a cause of scientists exhibiting survival mode behaviors. This leaves the perception that they are under threat, as a possible explanation.

It takes only a few stimuli to induce survival mode behavioral changes in animals. Like hearing a frightful noise when seeing an animal. This animal and anything that looks like it become automatic sources of anxiety and fear even without the sound. Imagine being told over and over and over that you have to have an exciting study with powerful results in order to get an academic job after graduate school, otherwise you wasted 3-8 years of your life and probably a large chunk of capital on getting a PhD. Could this alone, without introducing any actual shocks or physical pain, induce Pavlovian fear? I encourage you to go ask any graduate student to answer this that does not yet have such a study.

Now imagine that during graduate school a student invests all their time and resources into an experiment. After it is complete, they hypothesized result, the one sure to be exciting and publishable, is not there. Imagine the horror, the shame, the feeling of failure, the panic. Remember the poor soul who leaped to his death because he misunderstood futures trading and thought he owed three-quarters of a million dollars? That was a triggered survival response. Because dying felt like the only way to ‘survive’ the horror of facing that debt. Imagine if he could have just changed the futures market by adding his own numbers to the market. Would he have done it?

We should not be surprised at all then, when scientists acting out of fear-based survival strategies, fake data. Diederik Stapel faked an entire career of data before being caught. His behavior was self-described as an “addiction”. A common reaction of individuals placed under fear stimuli that are emotionally damaging if not traumatic. The intense pressures and expectations of the academic environment created a context in which he felt compelled to engage in unethical practices to maintain his status and success. It does not make murder or data-faking right, but to not take this as grounds for indicting the scientific rewards system is certainly wrong.

The incentive structures have to change before we can honestly expect the fear-driven pressure to fake, cheat, lie or steal – in order to avoid the experience of loss associated with the common null results that occur when conducting high quality scientific research on radically complex human brains and societies that are frustratingly difficult to measure things in – to go away.